Once again, this blog brought me together with another new friend, Kiya. She is a High School student from Arizona. Kiya posted this color chart of the possible colors of this years foals based on the parents color. I asked her if I could make a post with her results so everyone could see.
It will be fun to see how it all works out this spring! Thanks Kiya for sharing.
Sandy
Here are the possible foal colors for the year of 2013. I only calculated the colors of the foals of the mares that could possibly foal (no PZP). I did not include the missing mare because we have no clue who the father could be L. The calculations should be near correct, but since we can not go out and test for the color genes, I have left each as heterozygous instead of homozygous for their respective genes.
Icara and Durango’s foal could be a good number of colors.
16.67% -Buckskin Roan
16.67% -Buckskin
16.67% -Bay Roan
16.67% -Bay
8.33% -Palomino Roan
8.33% -Palomino
8.33% -Chestnut Roan
8.33% -Chestnut
I don’t know if either of Fresia or Merlin are homozygous for the dun gene, so I put them both as heterozygous. But the foal will most likely be grullo.
70.31% -Grullo
23.44% -Black
4.69% -Red Dun
1.56% -Chestnut
Until the foal is born we don’t know if the father to Halo’s foal is Merlin’s or Hidalgo’s, so I have included both.
If Merlin is the father, the foal will probably be bay or bay dun (the usually variety of dun you see).
35.16% -Bay Dun
35.16% -Bay
11.72% -Grullo
11.72% -Black
3.13% -Red Dun
3.13% -Chestnut
If Hidalgo is the father, the foal will most likely be bay.
58.34% -Bay
33.33% -Chestnut
8.33% -Black
Halcyon’s foal will most likely be a roan… 100% chance if Blue Moon is homozygous for roan.
25.00% -Blue Roan
25.00% -Bay Roan
25.00% -Chestnut Roan
8.33% -Black
8.33% -Bay
8.33% -Chestnut
Isadora’s foal will probably be black or blue roan, again depending on whether or not Blue Moon is homozygous for roan.
46.88% -Blue Roan
46.88% -Black
3.13% -Chestnut Roan 3.13% -Chestnut
Gabrielle’s foal will most likely be dun, since she and Cappucino carry the dun gene.
52.73% -Bay Dun
17.58% -Grullo
17.58% -Bay
5.86% -Black
4.69% -Red Dun
1.56% -Chestnut
There is a good possibility that Fiasco and Custer’s foal could be grullo roan. 50% chance the foal will be roan, possibly more if we knew if Custer was homozygous for roan.
23.44% -Grullo Roan
23.44% -Grullo
23.44% -Blue Roan
23.44% -Black
1.56% -Red Dun Roan
1.56% -Red Dun
1.56% -Chestnut Roan
1.56% -Chestnut
Fools Gold’s and Coronado’s foal is pretty much a lottery. Quite a few color possibilities.
14.58% -Bay Roan
14.58% -Bay Dun Roan
14.58% -Bay Dun
14.58% -Bay
8.33% -Red Dun Roan
8.33% -Red Dun
8.33% -Chestnut Roan
8.33% -Chestnut
2.08% -Grullo Roan
2.08% -Grullo
2.08% -Blue Roan 2.08% -Black
Dove’s and Coronado’s even moreso:
8.33% -Grullo Roan
8.33% -Grullo
8.33% -Blue Roan
8.33% -Black
8.33% -Bay Roan
8.33% -Bay Dun Roan
8.33% -Bay Dun
8.33% -Bay
8.33% -Red Dun Roan
8.33% -Red Dun 8.33% -Chestnut Roan 8.33% -Chestnut
Demure’s and Doc’s foal will most likely be grullo or black:
46.88% -Grullo
46.88% -Black
3.13% -Red Dun
3.13% -Chestnut
Graciana’s and Duke’s foal:
23.44% -Grullo
23.44% -Black
23.44% -Bay Dun
23.44% -Bay
3.13% -Red Dun
3.13% -Chestnut
Helenium and Duke’s foal:
43.95% -Bay Dun
43.95% -Bay
3.13% -Red Dun
3.13% -Chestnut
2.93% -Grullo
2.93% -Black
Hera and Galaxy’s foal:
46.88% -Blue Roan
46.88% -Black
3.13% -Chestnut Roan
3.13% -Chestnut
Greta and Garcia’s foal:
46.88% -Bay Dun
46.88% -Bay
3.13% -Red Dun
3.13% -Chestnut
Since it is not certain that the father of Galadriel’s foal is Tecumseh or Gringo, I have included them both.
Galadriel and Tecumseh:
33.34% -Bay Roan
33.34% -Bay
16.67% -Chestnut Roan
16.67% -Chestnut
Galadriel and Gringo:
93.75% -Bay
6.25% -Chestnut
Firestorm and Jackson
I had previously calculated this but after seeing many photos of Jackson, I have determined is a dark dun instead of a bay. If he is bay…. Sorry.
43.95% -Bay Roan
43.95% -Bay Dun Roan
3.13% -Red Dun Roan
3.13% -Chestnut Roan
2.93% -Grullo Roan
2.93% -Blue Roan
Galena and Jackson:
35.16% -Bay Dun
35.16% -Bay
11.72% -Grullo
11.72% -Black
3.13% -Red Dun
3.13% -Chestnut
Heritage and Jackson:
21.97% -Bay Roan
21.97% -Bay Dun Roan
21.97% -Bay Dun
21.97% -Bay
1.56% -Red Dun Roan
1.56% -Red Dun
1.56% -Chestnut Roan
1.56% -Chestnut
1.46% -Grullo Roan
1.46% -Grullo
1.46% -Blue Roan
1.46% -Black
I can’t tell if Morning Star is a faded black or a dark bay, but he looks more like dark bay so that’s what I have him as.
Hailstorm and Morning Star:
35.16% -Bay Roan
35.16% -Bay
11.72% -Blue Roan
11.72% -Black
3.13% -Chestnut Roan
3.13% -Chestnut
Gaelic Princess and Morning Star (the same parents of Kelly)
23.44% -Grullo
23.44% -Black
23.44% -Bay Dun
23.44% -Bay
3.13% -Red Dun
3.13% -Chestnut
Hataalii and Morning Star
43.95% -Bay Dun
43.95% -Bay
3.13% -Red Dun
3.13% -Chestnut
2.93% -Grullo
2.93% -Black
Half Moon and Teton:
35.16% -Bay Roan 35.16% -Bay
11.72% -Blue Roan 11.72% -Black
3.13% -Chestnut Roan 3.13% -Chestnut
Feldspar and White Cloud:
WHEW!! Mystery foal! I would personally want to see a dunskin roan.
4.17% -Black
4.17% -Buckskin
4.17% -Bay
4.17% -Blue Roan
4.17% -Smoky Grullo Roan
4.17% -Dunskin Roan
4.17% -Buckskin Roan
4.17% -Grullo Roan
4.17% -Dunskin
4.17% -Bay Roan
4.17% -Bay Dun Roan
4.17% -Bay Dun
4.17% -Smoky Black
4.17% -Smoky Blue Roan
4.17% -Smoky Grullo
4.17% -Grullo
4.17% -Chestnut
4.17% -Chestnut Roan
4.17% -Dunalino Roan
4.17% -Palomino
4.17% -Palomino Roan
4.17% -Red Dun
4.17% -Red Dun Roan
4.17% -Dunalino
Inocentes and White Cloud:
7.29% -Dunskin
7.29% -Bay Dun
7.29% -Bay Dun Roan
7.29% -Bay Roan
7.29% -Buckskin
7.29% -Buckskin Roan
7.29% -Bay
7.29% -Dunskin Roan 4.17% -Chestnut
4.17% -Chestnut Roan 4.17% -Dunalino Roan 4.17% -Palomino
4.17% -Palomino Roan 4.17% -Red Dun
4.17% -Red Dun Roan 4.17% -Dunalino
1.04% -Smoky Grullo Roan
1.04% -Grullo
1.04% -Grullo Roan
1.04% -Blue Roan
1.04% -Black
1.04% -Smoky Black 1.04% -Smoky Blue Roan 1.04% -Smoky Grullo
Kiya
This was fun to see!!! 🙂 made it home safe. Happy Birthday Eve! Love you xoxoxo
Sent from my iPhone
amberstudio.net
Thanks! 🙂
Wow! This is great. And looks like it took a lot of work. It will be fun to see how close the predictions are!
Thank you both for sharing (:
Thanks Brianna. 🙂
Sandy, I appreciated you for taking so much time and effort to create this fun color game. It will be very interesting to see the results.
Thanks to both Kiya and Sandy.
Thank you Anh!
Despite all of the odds and knowing how well genetics works as a science teacher, the underdog router in me is going “Come on 1.56% percent chance of Chestnut Roan” etc. Dunskin roan does sound fun.
Thank you for calculating the odds, Kiya, and for posting them, Sandy.
Thanks Shawn.
What great work for a budding scientist! This will be fun to follow.
Thank you Melanie! I think Kiya did a great job!
Thank you 🙂
Very interesting. Lots of time and effort from you both. I’ve never heard or seen the duns described as “bay” duns, tho, and Duke is Red Bay and Jackson is Coyote Dun. The sooty trim on the coyotes sets them apart from the regular duns. Blizzard and Durango are Apricot Duns, with Jemez being Apricot Dun Roan. But, I’m finding that there are as many terms for the colors as there are experts recording them. I especially love the golden highlights that show thru Dove’s Dark Buckskin coat. She’s pretty unique. I’ve seen that on one or two other horses from different ranges, but only one or two. It really is going to be fun seeing what palette Nature applies to the new little lives, and how many surprises are in store for us. And, of course, then there are the changes that keep happening for the first few months. 🙂 Patience will certainly be a virtue in playing this game. 🙂
Hi Linda, Thanks. Yes, most of us know the “listed colors” of the horses. But like I also said to Alex in response to his comment. Why not let someone who is new to the horses give it a try and give us her perspective. We never know what will happen really. I am just excited to get some younger people involved with the horses. Give us all some fresh ideas and carry on the torch for the love of these horses.
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You may find it interesting to click on the link below. It shows the choices for color. Coyote Dun, Apricot Dun and Red Bay, are not a listed option. Here is that link:
http://www.horsetesting.com/CCalculator1.asp
You misunderstood if you think my comments were meant to discourage Kiya’s interest in the horses or anyone’s participation in the color game. I truly welcome her to the fold and respect her ability to apply science to Nature. I’m betting her calculations will prove accurate (with descriptions according to her terminology for the colors), at least part of the time. But we all know that Nature has a way of humbling mankind with unpredictable outcomes, so Shawn will probably win out with his wish for some of the less probables among the new foals. And, of course, with conceptions occurring in the wild, there are many chances for the sire not actually being who we think it was, anyway. Some of those girls have had more than one guy in their lives at just the right time. 🙂 And it is REALLY fun to see foals develop to their true colors. One case in point about the changes that happen in the first few months that I was really aware of was how light Montana was when he was new and how he began to darken so much by the time I got pictures of him. And how about the changes we’ve seen in Mica?! I’d say we don’t know for sure on him yet. Thus, I say, patience is a virtue in this game. =D
I’d bet that as Kiya learns more about the horses and sees more pictures of them in different lighting, etc., she will be impressed by the variety of coat and mane/tail colorations, and the beauty of these horses will boggle her mind. As a matter of fact, I can see that coming on in her words in her reply to Alex. And, Kiya, I would be interested in hearing what term you would use to describe Medicine Bow, who is known as Sabino.
In referring to the horses’ coloring, I’ve been going by the information I have that came from the experts like those who did the genetic testing long ago that proved the lineage of the Pryor Mountain Mustangs whose heritage is unique and from the charting experts did of the colors, some of which are unique to these type of horses and do not necessarily line up exactly with today’s terminologies for “all” horses. They are the colors of the PMWMs that have been and still are used on the “list” mentioned.
I guess I feel like it’s kind of like the new math—new words to use and new ways to come up with the same answer. I don’t feel the need to change what has been in place for decades, but I do respect others’ rights to use their own terminology, just as I treasure my own right to use what I have already learned.
I also found it interesting that the dictionary describes the term “dun” as in a dun horse, as “having a grayish-yellow coat with a black mane and tail”. That yellow must be what shines like gold when they are seen in certain light… something I really love about the many duns on the PMWHR.
Bottom line is—I’m looking forward to hearing more from Kiya’s point of view, maybe learning some things from her, and it won’t bother me if she doesn’t agree with mine. I think it’s safe to guess that we agree on one thing for sure, and that’s that these are BEAUTIFUL HORSES. =D
So either bay or dun—not bay dun?
Not discouraged at all 🙂
Medicine Bow looks like red dun sabino. Not just sabino because sabino is a color pattern… like tobiano or overo (which as far as I am concerned, do not exist in the Pryor herd but I could be wrong) and his color pattern is on top of red dun.
And bay dun is the proper term for “dun”. Take Cappucino for example. He is bay dun. Normally, they are just called dun, but because the color is technically the dun gene diluting the bay gene, in calculators it is called bay dun. Thanks for your comment 😀
Hi Linda, No one is proposing we change or call the colors by a different name. Those are just their scientific names for the sake of determining a possible foal color. This was taken off of the PMWMC website: Duns are BAY horses affected by the dun allele.
Here is that direct link so you can refer to it: http://www.pryormustangs.org/colors_conformation.shtml
Thanks for pointing that out, it made me re-read those colors on the PMWMC and by doing that helped me better understand Kiya’s terminology.
Well… see, there is no specific gene that we are aware of that contributes to a specific shade of color. There is no such thing as a “red bay” or a “coyote dun”… they are either bay or dun. Jackson, I believe, is a very sooty dun, but like Sandy said, there is no choice for that, because there is no gene for that. The color you are referring to is called red dun, which is the dun gene on top of the sorrel gene. I was not quite sure what color Durango was because I did not have the horse list and I could not tell from the few photos I had. He is, however, red dun. Bay duns are just the normal duns you see. They are called bay duns because it is the dun gene on top of bay. Jemez looks to me like a normal red roan, not a red dun roan, but I could be wrong 🙂 Thanks for your comment.
Hi Kiya! Its nor exactly trew… you see the Aguti gene ( the gene that causes bay) has 3 different alleles( mutations or variants of the gene) .
The first one is “A+” that is the most dominant of all and causes “wild bay”.
Then there is “A” that causes general bay and then there is “At” which is Brown. Brown is nor black or bay . Bay and brown as you know are considered base colors because they are affected by all the other dilutes and modifiers . Coyote dun is also called “brown dun” because unlike regular dun that has Bay as a base color , Coyote dun’s have Brown as there base color.
Your interest and dedication to study horse color genetics is really wonderful! I am very interested in it as well.
hear is a link to a very good horse color genetic web site. It has a lot of very interesting information! 🙂
http://www.horse-genetics.com/horse-colors.html
there is also a game that I found about a year ago on horse color genetics, it is quite fun and it gives people a visual example of the interaction among the colors. I really recommend you try it 🙂
http://www.jenniferhoffman.net/horse/horse-color-genetics.html#0000200040
Thank you for the links 🙂
However, the calculator I have (Sandy posted the link earlier) does not have the A+ or the At gene listed as a choice. Thank you for explaining the term coyote dun for me. I didn’t know about that.
However… the A+ and the At gene have not been fully researched and the effects of it are not fully proved… which are why 1) the calculator does not include these colors and 2) I have decided not to include them. Though they do clearly exist in the Pryor herd. Thanks for sharing 😀
thanks for he blog post! it must have really taken a lot of time !
this is the link where you can calculate the color of a foal !
http://www.horsetesting.com/CCalculator1.asp
I would just like o correct a few things…
Dove and coronado could never have a grullo or a dun..Dove is not a dun nor a grulla, she is a brown or smooty buckskin…
Icara and Durango can’t have a buckskin or a palomino! she is not a smokey black, but actually she is just a brown !
Thanks Alex, yes we do know all this. Why not let someone who is new to the horses take it from their prospective and give it a go. Who knows how it will come out. 🙂
Hmm… you are right, Icara is not smokey black. I believed that Durango might have been a palomino, or some other color, but it has been brought to my attention that he is actually red dun. He might actually be dunalino though. I’m not completely sure.
Also, Dove looks to be a sooty dun or perhaps a smokey grullo… she could even be a seriously sunfaded smokey black. I don’t have the horse list as of this very second (I don’t have my email open) but she has a dorsal stripe and the hue of her color tells me she is a sooty dun.
Thank you for your comment 🙂
Hi !!! Dove as a foal was a white buckskin with blue eyes and some sooty! she got the cream from her mother who is a palomino roan… her father Is a heterozygous black roan stallion..
Dove’s first foal was a white buckskin and even her new daughter Melita is a Sooty/brown buckskin roan! 🙂
The cream gene is very subtle in the pryors! 🙂 for instance Hailstorm is a Smokey blue roan!
VERY impressive photos and Kiya’s calculations! Dizzying!
Thanks Diane!
Thank you 🙂
Very interesting, thanks for sharing!!! I’m sure that took some time! I’m looking forward to seeing the new babies!
Thanks Sarah!
What a fascinating post! Thanks, Sandy and Kiya!
Thank you Carolyn!
Loving this! My mind goes racing with images of the new little ones 😀
But would an Isadora foal be from Mescalero or Blue Moon do you think? She changed band late may/early june? I actually don’t know how long they go pregnant:)
Hi Anne! I would have to look it up to make sure, but I believe Isadora was with Blue Moon early last spring, so it would most likely be his. The gestation period for horses is around 11 months.
I think it was late March/early April that she ended up with Flint. It was the same time that Lincoln and Lemhi both disapeared.
Very interesting Kiya. It sure is nice to see another young lady take interest and become involved with this herd. I enjoyed reading this segment and it will be interesting to see what color’s the foals will be, and exactly who foals. This is fun!!
Thanks Kiya, and thank you Sandy for posting this. Your photos are as usual, beautiful!
My list shows that Isadora was with Blue Moon in June last year. In 2011, she was with Mescalero. So, I am thinking that her foal will be from Blue Moon!
I love all these interesting links on here and on this subject. All the genetics info is mind boggling to me cause I’m a “what do I ‘see’? ” kind of person. Thanks everyone for all the cool contributions to the discussion, and especially to Sandy for providing this very vibrant forum for discussion. 🙂 It adds a whole new excitement to the anticipation of what this new season of foals will bring. <3
Thanks Kiya!! I think everyone’s a little more polite than I am! LOLLOL! 😀